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Philippine soybean production is minimal and the negligible amount of imports is purchased largely by
one crusher. Copra production in MY 16/17 is forecast at 2.2 million tons (which approximates industry’s production forecast for CY 2017), up 5 percent from 2.1 million tons in MY 15/16 as coconut trees begin to recover from drier-than-normal conditions that resulted from El Nino weather patterns through the first half of CY 2016. Output is expected to slightly increase to 2.3 million tons in MY 17/18 as precipitation improved during the latter part of CY 2016.
SBM imports in MY 16/17 are expected to reach 2.65 million tons due to the expanding livestock and
poultry industries and investments in feed grain storage and distribution infrastructure. Post estimates
that MY 17/18 SBM imports could reach 2.8 million tons, driven by the continued expansion of
domestic feed-consuming industries.
Copra meal exports in MY 16/17 were pared down 100,000 tons to 350,000 tons, based on industry’s
export projection for CY 2017 that factors less than expected copra crush during the period and a
replenishment of stocks. Exports in MY 17/18 are forecast to modestly increase 25,000 tons to 375,000
tons as copra production further improves as a result of more favorable weather conditions.
Local soybean oil (SBO) production and trade are insignificant due to the local preference for CNO or
palm oil (depending on price). Overall domestic CNO consumption is expected to decline in MY 16/17
and remain at this level in MY 17/18 as a result of substitution for more competitively priced palm oil.
CNO is the top Philippine agricultural export. Post estimates MY 16/17 CNO production at 1.42
million tons and projects MY 17/18 production at 1.48 million tons due to a mild recovery in copra
output. From 600,000 tons in MY 15/16, overall CNO consumption is expected to decline to 580,000
tons in MY 16/17, and projected to remain flat in MY 17/18 mainly due to substitution for more
competitively priced palm oil. Substantial imports of palm oil are expected to displace some CNO food
use through MY 17/18 while industrial CNO consumption is expected to remain flat. CNO exports were
revised downwards 20,000 tons to 820,000 tons in MY 16/17 due to less than expected copra output, but
are still expected to increase 8 percent from the previous year’s level. CNO exports are projected to
reach 880,000 tons in MY 17/18 due to the expected increase in copra production after a prolonged
period of drought. read more