Highlights
Between January and March 2019 (Jan 2018=100)
- The All commodity group import index decreased by -0.46% due to the fall in prices of live animals; animal products, products of chemical and Allied industries, and wood and articles of wood, wood charcoal
- The All commodity group export price index rose by 1.85% due to increases in the prices of Animal and vegetable fats and oils.
- The All products terms of trade (TOT) index increased by 2.30% due to increases in prices of Animal and vegetable fats and oils and other cleavage products
- The All region group export index rose by 1.85% due to rise in export prices to Asia and America.
- The All region group import index fell by -0.46% due to declines in import prices across all Regions.
- The All region terms of trade increased by 2.30% due to increased export prices to and Asia and America.
- Nigeria’s major trading partner countries in Q1 2019 were India, China, Spain, France and the Netherlands
- The major export to these countries were crude petroleum and natural gas
- The major imports from these countries were motorcycles, motor spirit (ordinary) and Machine for reception, conversion and distribution of voice/images.
Terms Of Trade
The terms of trade (TOT) represents the ratio between a country’s export prices and its import prices. The ratio is calculated by dividing the price of the exports by the price of the imports, usually in percentage terms. In this report, the terms of trade are calculated as the value of Nigeria’s exports as a percentage of the value of its imports. An increase in the terms of trade between two periods (or when TOT is greater than 100%) means that the value of exports is increasing relative to the value of imports, and the country can afford more imports for the same value of exports. For example, an increase in the price of oil between two periods (with oil production remaining the same) is likely to increase or improve the terms of trade for Nigeria and vice versa. The TOT is recorded as an index and can be used as an indicator of an economy’s health.
Commodity Price Index January To March 2019
All commodity group import index (Table 1)
In Q1 2019, the All commodity group import index, on average, decreased by -0.46%, following a 0.29% rise in February and a drop of 0.74% in March.
On a month on month basis, the All commodity group import price index advanced by 0.29% in February, compared to January. The February advance was driven by prices of Wood and articles of wood (1.22%), Boilers, machinery & appliances (0.85%) and prepared foodstuff (0.62%), which was offset by decreases in the prices of textile & textile articles (-1.28%) and footwear, headgear, umbrellas etc (-5.18%)
Import prices for the All commodity group decreased by 0.74% in March compared to February. The products that contributed to this decrease were wood and articles of wood, wood Charcoal (-2.42%) and Live animals, animal products (-2.06%). This was offset by footwear, headgear, umbrellas (5.81%), Articles of stone, plaster, cement, asbestos, Mica and ceramic (3.12%) but were not enough to result in an increase in the import index.
All commodity group export index (Table 2)
The All commodity group export index, on average, increased by 1.85% between January and March 2019. It edged down (-1.27%) in March after rising 3.12% in February.
The February increase, compared to January, was driven by Animal and vegetable fats and oils (4.77%), Products of the chemical and Allied industries (3.46%) and Mineral products (3.29%) but was offset by Prepared foodstuffs, beverages, spirits (-5.9%), Live animals; animal products (-7.12%) and Footwear, headgear, umbrellas (-9.25%).
The All commodity group export index decreased by -1.27% in March 2019 against the index recorded in February. The decrease was driven by declining prices for Textiles and textile articles (-3.92%), Mineral products (-1.40%) and Paper making material (-1.10%) which more than offset rising prices for Animal and vegetable fats and oils (5.5%), Raw hides and skins (5.26%) and Wood and articles of wood (4.69%).
Terms of Trade by commodity (2018 Jan=100) (Table 3)
The All commodity group terms of trade stood at 98.92 in January, 101.71 in February and 101.17 in March. This represents an increase of 2.82% in February (compared to January), and a decrease of -0.5% in March (compared to February). On average, the terms of trade increased by 2.30% during the quarter. This also indicates favourable terms of trade. The rise in the terms of trade was driven by Animal and Vegetable fats and oil (10.7%), wood and articles of wood, wood charcoal (8.5%), products of the chemical and allied industries (7.8%).
All Region Group export index (Table 4)
In March, the All region group export index declined by -1.27%, after rising 3.12% in February. This implies a cumulative increase in the index by 1.85% between January and March. The decline observed at the end of the quarter was mainly due to the falling export prices to Europe (-2.25%) and Africa (-2.18%), between February and March.
All Region Group import index (Table 5)
The all region group import index stood at 102.6 in January, 102.8 in February and 102.1 in March. This indicates an increase of 0.29% in February against the index recorded in January and a decrease of- 0.74% in March when compared with the value recorded in February. overall, between January and March, the All region import index was relatively stable, declining by only -0.46%.
Terms of Trade by Country Regions [2018 Jan=100] (Table 6)
During the quarter, the All Region terms of trade registered 98.9 in January, 101.71 in February and 101.17 in March. These indices show an increase of 2.82% in February compared with January, and a decrease of -0.52% in March against February, leading to an aggregate increase in the index by 2.30%. The rise in the index was a result of stronger trade with Asia and the Americas during the quarter.
Merchandise Trade with Top Five Partners By Major Commodities In Q 1 2019 (N’million) (Table 7)
INDIA
India was the largest export market for Nigeria in Q1 2019. Export trade to India accounted for 16.43% of total exports (or N744.9billion). The largest export commodity to India was crude oil at a value of N684.0billion. This was followed by Natural gas, liquefied (N47.1billion), Sesamum seed (N6.0 billion), Urea (N2.5billion) and others. On the other hand, Nigeria imported motorcycles valued at N65.3billion, Kerosene Jet fuel worth N15.2billion, other antibiotics of N9.3billion in value, and other goods from India during the period under review.
CHINA
In Q1 2019, Nigeria’s export trade with China was dominated by Natural gas, liquefied valued at N88.6billion, followed by Crude oil (N38.7billion), Sesamum seed (N7.0billion) and others. In terms of imports, Machines for reception of voice, Motorcycles, and Other Machine tools for working stone respectively worth N49.4billion, N29.97 billion, and N25.50billion were imported from China.
SPAIN
Nigeria’s major export to Spain in Q1 2019 was Crude oil valued at N395.7 billion. This was followed closely by Natural gas, liquefied worth N85.8 billion, and Leather further prepared after tanning valued at N2.9billion. During the quarter, Mixed alkylbenzenes & mixed alkylanaphthalenes, worth N6.9billion was imported from Spain. Other imports from Spain were motor spirits (N3.3billion), and Gypsum; anhydrite whether or not coloured (N2.6billion) among others.
FRANCE
In Q1 2019, Nigeria exported N229.2billion worth of Crude oil to France. Other major export commodities included Natural gas, liquefied valued at N70.96billion and Parts for boring or sinking machinery worth N1.1billion. In terms of imports, the main commodities imported were Motor spirits, valued at N15.0billion, lubricating oils to be mixed (N3.2billion), Additives for lubricating oils (N1.5billion) and Malt, not roasted (N1.3billion) amongst others.
THE NETHERLANDS
In Q1 2019, the largest exported commodity to the Netherlands was crude oil (N366.3billion), followed by Dredgers (N9.4billion), Other light vessels (N8.1billion), Good fermented cocoa beans (N5.7billion), and other petroleum gases (N5.4billion). On the other hand, Motor Spirit valued at N58.3billion, Gas oil valued at N29.95billion, Herrings (Clupea harengus, Clupea pallasii) valued at N6.2billion, and Mackerel (N5.0 billion) amongst others were imported from the Netherlands during the quarter.
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